REKONSTRUKSI DAN PROYEKSI KONDISI LINGKUNGAN TELUK JAKARTA BERDASARKAN KEJADIAN MUSIM UBUR-UBUR TAHUN 2018 DAN 2019
Abstract
Peningkatan populasi ubur-ubur yang tinggi dilaporkan terjadi di Teluk Jakarta pada Oktober 2018 dan 2019. Namun, informasi ilmiah mengenai fenomena ini masih terbatas, terutama dari aspek lingkungannya. Penelitian ini merekonstruksi kondisi lingkungan laut Teluk Jakarta berdasarkan kejadian musim ubur-ubur tahun 2018 dan 2019, serta memproyeksikan variasi lingkungan sebelum dan sesudah kejadian tersebut dengan menganalisis deret waktu 2014–2024. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan data sea surface temperature (SST) dan sea surface salinity (SSS) dari model CMEMS GLORYS12V1, serta curah hujan dari reanalisis CHIRPS. Variabilitas iklim diobservasi menggunakan indeks Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI) dan El Niño–Southern Oscillation (SOI). Analisis deret waktu meliputi Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), dan Power Spectral Density (PSD). Anomali lingkungan dievaluasi dengan membandingkan kondisi perairan pada periode Time of Interest (ToI) 2018 dan 2019 terhadap anomali sebelum ToI (2014–2017) dan sesudahnya (2020–2024). Verifikasi kebenaran peristiwa ledakan populasi ubur-ubur dilakukan melalui cross-checking terhadap wawancara, survei lapangan, dan laporan berita (2010–2024). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ledakan populasi ubur-ubur benar terjadi di Teluk Jakarta pada Oktober 2018 dan 2019, tanpa ditemukan laporan serupa di tahun lainnya. Variabilitas iklim mengindikasikan dominasi pengaruh IOD akibat lemahnya pengaruh ENSO yang mendekati netral pada periode ToI. Dominasi IOD terlihat dari anomali peningkatan SSS, serta anomali penurunan SST dan curah hujan. Kombinasi kondisi tersebut diduga dapat mendukung strobilasi dan pertumbuhan ephyra ubur-ubur, sehingga mendorong peningkatan populasi. Pendekatan rekonstruksi berbasis kejadian ini memperluas konteks temporal untuk memahami hubungan antara karakteristik perairan dan variabilitas iklim terhadap respon ekologi ubur-ubur di Teluk Jakarta.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15578/bawal.17.3.2025.179%20-%20197