DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP KINERJA SUB SEKTOR PERIKANAN DI INDONESIA: SUATU PENDEKATAN EKONOMETRIKA

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan makroekonomi terhadap kinerja sub sektor perikanan. Model ekonometrika yang dibangun sebagai sistem persamaan simultan yang memasukan variabel kebijakan makroekonomi. Analisis dampak dibedakan dalam 3 (tiga) periode, yaitu sebelum krisis ekonomi periode 1993-1996, pada krisis ekonomi periode 1997-2000 dan pada peramalan periode 2003-2007. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan makroekonomi: (1) depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah, (2) peningkatan kredit di sub sektor perikanan, (3) peningkatan investasi di sub sektor perikanan, (4) kombinasi penurunan tingkat suku bunga dan peningkatan kredit di sub sektor perikanan, dan (5) kombinasi kebijakan 1, 3 dan 4 pada peramalan periode 2003-2007 dapat meningkatkan kinerja sub sektor perikanan (produksi, konsumsi dan ekspor perikanan meningkat). Depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah, peningkatan kredit atau investasi di sub sektor perikanan (kebijakan tunggal) dapat meningkatkan kinerja sub sektor perikanan. Kinerja sub sektor perikanan akan meningkat lebih tinggi apabila dilakukan kombinasi kebijakan yang dapat menurunkan tingkat suku bunga, peningkatan kredit dan investasi di sub sektor perikanan pada kondisi depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah.

Tittle:  Impacts of Macroeconomic Policy on The Performance of Fisheries Sector in Indonesia: An Econometrics Approach

This research was intended to analyze the impact of macroeconomic policy on the performance of the fisheries sector. The Econometric model was built in terms of simultaneous equations system, which include macroeconomic policy variables. The impact analysis was elaborated into three periods, i.e. the period before the economic crisis (1993-1996), the period of economic crisis (1997-2000), and the forecasting period (2003-2007). The results of the macroeconomic policies of: (1) depreciation in exchange rate of rupiah, (2) the increasing of credit in fisheries sector, (3) the increasing of investment in fisheries sector, (4) the combination of the decreasing of interest rate and the increasing of credit in fisheries sector, and (5) the policy combination 1, 3 and 4 for the forecasting period 2003-2007 could increase the performance of fisheries sector in terms of production, consumption and fisheries export. The depreciation in exchange rate of rupiah, the increasing of credit or investment in fisheries sector (single policy) could increase the performance of fisheries sector. The performance of fisheries sector will be keep increasing by combining policies of: decreasing of interest rate, increasing of credit in fisheries sector and increasing of investment in fisheries sector at condition depreciations in exchange rate of rupiah.