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DETERMINAN PERMINTAAN EKSPOR KEPITING/RAJUNGAN OLAHAN INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT: PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL
Abstract
Kepiting/rajungan merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor perikanan yang terus meningkat permintaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan olahan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat sebagai pasar tujuan utama. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder, yaitu data harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat, volume produksi kepiting/rajungan di dalam negeri, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat. Data tersebut diperoleh dari UN-Comtrade, Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan (KKP), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah ekonometrika dinamis dengan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat pada jangka pendek adalah harga ekspor dan volume produksi di dalam negeri dengan nilai koefisien masing-masing sebesar -0.7818 dan 0.5270. Pada jangka panjang, variabel yang berpengaruh adalah harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan nilai koefisien sebesar - 0.7938. Upaya peningkatan volume ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dapat dilakukan dengan kebijakan melalui usaha nelayan dan perbaikan mekanisme rantai pasok (foodchains) yang berdampak menurunkan harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dan perbaikan kualitas produksi kepiting/rajungan di Indonesia. Selain itu, seiring dengan meningkatnya permintaan kepiting/rajungan di Amerika Serikat dapat memberikan peluang bagi Indonesia untuk meningkatkan ekspor kepiting/rajungan ke Amerika Serikat.
Title: Determinants of Demand for Indonesian Export of Processed Crabs to the United States: An Error Correction Model Approach
Crab is one of fishery export commodity that has continuing increase in demand. This study aimed to analyze demand for Indonesian processed crab exports to the United States as the main destination market. Data used are secondary data, namely data on export price of Indonesian crabs to the United States, the volume of domestic crab production, and exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. Data was obtained from UN-Comtrade, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using dynamic econometrics method with the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. Variables of the study are export price of Indonesian crab to the United States, production volume of crab in Indonesia, and exchange rate of rupiah against United States dollar. The results showed that export prices and domestic production volume are variables influencing demand for Indonesian crab exports to the United States in the short term with coefficient value of -0.7818 and 0.5270 respectively. In the long term, the influencing variables is domestic production volume with coefficient value of 0.7938. Export volume to the United States could be increased through policy on fishing effort and supply chain mechanism improvement that resulted in the decrease of export prices and improved quality of the crabs. In addition, the increasing number of crab demand in the United States provides opportunities for Indonesia to increase crab exports to the United States.
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